The Ocean Behind the Forecast: How the Ocean Shapes our Weather, and What We Can Do About It
Warming Ocean, Warming Planet
When we check the weather forecast, most of us are focused on whether we need suncream, an umbrella, or a winter coat. We think about clouds, rain, wind, and temperature. What we don't often think about is the ocean.
Did you know many of our weather patterns are influenced by conditions at sea? From the warm Atlantic currents that help keep the UK relatively mild to shifting conditions in the Pacific that can influence rainfall and temperatures across the globe, the ocean is Earth's climate engine.
In fact, the ocean absorbs more than 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, making it one of the most important regulators of Earth's climate.
The UK's recent heatwave was a stark reminder of how quickly weather can move from a very British conversation topic to a national concern. With temperatures pushing above 35°C in some parts of the country, there were warnings about heat-related illness, pressure on infrastructure, and disruption to transport networks. But while the headlines focused on what was happening on land, part of the story was unfolding at sea.
Scientists are studying how warmer ocean temperatures can influence weather patterns by adding heat and moisture to the atmosphere. No single weather event can be pinned on one cause alone, but it's very clear that what happens in the ocean doesn't stay in the ocean.
Meteorologists do far more than stand in front of a weather map on television. They are constantly monitoring ocean conditions because changes in sea surface temperatures can influence weather patterns weeks, months, and sometimes even seasons in advance. Whether it's marine heatwaves in the North Atlantic or changing conditions in the Pacific, the ocean often provides the first clues about what's coming next.
Understanding how the ocean influences our weather helps explain the forecasts we rely on every day and gives communities, businesses, and policymakers a better chance of preparing for a future where extreme weather events are becoming more common.
We should remember that behind every weather forecast, there's an important catayst at sea.
The ocean as Earth’s thermostat
Covering around 70% of Earth's surface, the ocean is the planet's largest climate regulator. It absorbs heat from the sun, stores it, and releases it over time, helping to regulate global temperatures.
Unlike land, which heats and cools quickly, the ocean changes temperature much more slowly. This allows it to buffer sudden climate fluctuations while influencing long-term weather patterns.
Warmer oceans increase evaporation, putting more moisture into the atmosphere. This can lead to heavier rainfall and, in some cases, fuel more intense storms and hurricanes.
Ocean currents act like the planet's conveyor belt, moving warm water away from the tropics and redistributing heat around the globe. The Gulf Stream and Atlantic circulation system help keep the UK's climate significantly milder than many places at similar latitudes.
Even the jet stream, you know that fast-moving river of air that helps steer our weather, can be influenced by ocean temperatures through complex interactions between the ocean and atmosphere.
When the ocean changes, the atmosphere responds.
El Niño: The Pacific weather’s wild card
Imagine moving a giant pool of warm water back and forth across the Pacific Ocean. That's essentially what happens during El Niño.
Normally, trade winds push warm surface water westwards towards Australia and Indonesia. During El Niño, these winds weaken, allowing warmer water to spread eastwards across the tropical Pacific.
Although this shift happens thousands of miles away, its impacts can be felt around the world. El Niño events have been linked to increased flooding in parts of North and South America, droughts in Australia and Southeast Asia, disruptions to Asian monsoons, and temporary increases in global temperatures.
Every El Niño is different, but it remains one of the clearest examples of how changes in the ocean can influence weather across the globe.
Marine Heatwaves: the hidden extreme weather event
All of us are familiar with heatwaves, but lots of us probably forget that they also occur at sea. Marine heatwaves occur when ocean temperatures stay significantly higher for a prolonged period. These events are becoming more common as the climate continues to warm, and they can have some serious consequences.
The warmer seas damage delicate marine ecosystems, disrupt fisheries, contribute to coral bleaching, and can influence weather patterns on land. The marine heatwaves occurring in the North Atlantic are capturing European scientists' attention due to their potential impact on European weather.
The ocean determines how climate change affects all of us now and in the future.
Understanding these connections is a key part of ocean literacy. Ocean literacy means understanding how the ocean influences our daily lives, our economies, our food, health, and our exposure to climate risks.
Reading the ocean’s signals
Modern forecasting starts in the ocean. Meteorologists and climate scientists continuously monitor ocean conditions because they provide early clues about future weather patterns. Organisations such as the Met Office, ECMWF, NOAA, and Copernicus Marine Service rely on a global network of instruments to track changes in the world's oceans.
Satellites: Satellites monitor sea surface temperatures, chlorophyll concentrations, sea level, storm development, and ocean currents, helping scientists identify developing risks before they affect communities.
Argo Floats: Thousands of autonomous Argo floats drift through the oceans, diving to depths of around 2,000 metres before resurfacing to transmit data on temperature, salinity, and pressure.
Computer Modelling: Forecasting models combine information from satellites, ocean sensors, ships, aircraft, and weather stations to predict heatwaves, storm tracks, flood risks, seasonal weather patterns, and long-term climate trends.
The better our ocean observations, the better our forecasts become.
Every weather forecast begins with data, and much of that data comes from the ocean. The more we understand what is happening at sea, the better prepared we are for what happens on land.
The more money invested into ocean observations, the better the forecasting becomes. Every forecast begins with data. Hence without reliable observations our ability to prepare for extreme weather events becomes weaker.
The cost of stopping ocean monitoring
If the ocean determines our forecasts, monitoring systems are how it communicates with us.
That's why proposed cuts by the Trump administration to climate, environmental, and scientific programmes have raised concerns among researchers and forecasting experts, particularly where they affect observation systems, climate research, and long-term environmental monitoring.
Many of these programmes support satellites, ocean-observing systems, climate research initiatives, and long-term datasets that scientists rely on to understand changing ocean conditions.
This is about more than science funding. Weather and climate don't recognise national borders. Data collected in the Pacific, Atlantic, or Arctic contributes to forecasting systems used worldwide, including here in the UK.
When observation networks lose funding, gaps appear in the data, making it harder to track marine heatwaves, monitor storms, improve seasonal forecasts, and understand long-term climate trends that are more important now than ever.
In our new normal of climate uncertainty, reducing our ability to monitor the planet carries serious risks. The ocean is constantly sending us signals. The question is whether we choose to keep listening.
What can we do: Practical steps for a changing climate
The scale of climate change understandably makes individual actions feel insignificant, but resilience and change comes from millions of decisions made by people, businesses, and governments. It’s like if we come back to the first article, ‘it’s just one plastic bottle, said 1 billion people’.
For Individuals:
Stay informed through Met Office forecasts, flood alerts, and local emergency guidance.
Improve insulation, keep homes cool during hot weather, and maintain basic emergency supplies.
Choose renewable energy where possible, reduce waste, support marine conservation, and consider lower-carbon transport options.
Support citizen science projects, coastal conservation initiatives, and organisations that help monitor and protect the ocean.
For Businesses:
Agriculture: Invest in water-efficient irrigation, drought-resistant crops, and climate-risk planning.
Tourism: Adapt to changing weather patterns, promote sustainable tourism, and prepare for weather-related disruption.
Construction & Infrastructure: Design buildings for higher temperatures, improve drainage, and invest in climate-resilient materials.
Local authorities can build resilience by expanding green spaces, strengthening heatwave and flood preparedness plans, using environmental data to guide decisions, and working with scientists to better understand local climate risks.
A future in balance: Can we predict, and mitigate extreme weather?
Forecasting is improving rapidly. Artificial intelligence, next-generation satellites, and citizen science projects are helping researchers monitor the ocean in greater detail than ever before. But technology alone isn't enough. International cooperation remains essential because oceans and weather systems do not respect national borders. Citizen science is also key to improving the public’s awareness and engagement with the ocean and climate risks.
The more people understand how the ocean influences weather and climate, the better equipped society will be to respond to future challenges.
Listening to the ocean
Despite its enormous influence, the ocean often remains invisible in conversations about weather and climate change. Especially in the UK, remembering we are quite a small island in the Atlantic Ocean is important. Climate risks are continuing to grow, and understanding the ocean is becoming essential for all of us.
Every weather forecast begins with observations collected somewhere across the world's oceans, often thousands of miles from where the forecast is eventually used.
The ocean is the force behind the forecast, and if we want a more climate-resilient future, we need to keep listening to what it is telling us.
Written by Alana Wilson with editorial direction from Leanne Hepburn